UPDATE: Rain this evening, snow mix possible for Saturday
Rain showers have arrived and will pick up in coverage area after sunset. We're looking at a good half inch of rainfall area wide, and some spots could be up closer to an inch with any showers that linger through Saturday. On the back side of this storm we anticipate winds to switch to the north and northwest. This will lead to cooling temperatures during your Saturday. As this cold air surges in, rain and precipitation from a second area of low pressure will brush southern Wisconsin, possibly in the form of snow, or at least a wintry mix mid morning until about noon time.
If winds veer slightly north-northeast as shown on the local view, we may stick with just rain lakeside, but farther inland could see a quick slushy half inch of accumulation. Temperatures should remain above freezing through most of the day, so any wintry precipitation will melt quickly. But, for hunters who are out in the woods conditions will be damp and a bit muddy.
Rain pushes in later today all around a low pressure system which will usher in breezy conditions the next24 hours, rain, thunder, and even a mix by tomorrow.
The moisture profiles continue to show the opportunity for decent November rainfall along this storm system. Models are indicating the potential for 0.50”-1.00” rainfall from today into early tomorrow. Earlier in the week, stronger storms were thought possible just to our south, but I think at best rumbles of thunder could be embedded in this line of rain.
The tricky part to this forecast is the rain to mix to snow transition, and when it takes place. One model is hinting at a lot more snow, 1”-3” possibly for southeastern Wisconsin, which is certainly possible if we get the colder air in quickly behind the storm system tomorrow.I think minor accumulation is certainly possible on grassy surfaces tomorrow morning, but with the warm ground, any snow that does fall don’t expect it to stick around long. The precipitation all tapers off later tomorrow.
This won’t be the ideal forecast for deer hunters as the Opener kicks off tomorrow morning. With the rain/mix likely, and also the very gusty winds, it won’t be pretty in the woods. Winds are expected to pivot out of the south today from 15-25 miles, and crank behind the front tomorrow 15-30 with gusts nearing 40 mph.
Quieter, but colder weather takes over Saturday night and Sunday. Expect falling temperatures all day into the 30s Saturday, and highs on Sunday in the low to mid 30s with sun.