With Meteorological Winter kicking off, here's a look at the predictions
Have you heard these things before:
*Those caterpillar colors are bright, the winter will be cold!
*The squirrels and rabbits are certainly fuller in their coats, I bet it will be a cold winter!
*Those mole holes are deep this year, it will be a cold season!
*The fall colors are dim and blah, it's going to be a warm winter!
If you follow my forecast methods, I am not a fan of long term computer models are crazy season predictions. Yet, it’s still fun to look at some of the trends, and then look back once the season ends. This is something we will likely do come spring as we brush through the winter season.
The trend all of fall for the winter season has been the La Niña pattern which typically brings around average temperatures, but an uptick in precipitation with the overall flow aloft. This pattern stick looks good, and that’s what the National Weather Service has predicted. The Climate Prediction is holding up “equal chances” of above or below average temperatures, but keeping southeastern Wisconsin under the threshold of “above average” chances for more than normal precipitation. This would likely mean MORE snow if all came true.
On the other hand, we have the controversial Old Farmer’s Almanac. What are your thoughts on the OFA? If it’s one crazy long term forecast, or the other, it doesn’t matter both will likely be off in some way. I always say, you can grab a monkey from the Milwaukee Zoo, have the monkey throw a dart, and they have just as much of a chance to be accurate in these long term forecasts. Don’t you appreciate honestly?!
Ok, back to OFA. They’re indicating dry and mild in the northern part of the state, while southeastern Wisconsin will stay mild with a snowier season. If you read in-between the lines, this smells of the La Niña trend as well.
Bottom line, these are fun forecasts to look at, and I can’t wait to compare these outlooks with what really happened!