What's at stake and the issues defining Wisconsin's midterm election

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MADISON, Wis. (CBS 58) -- On Nov. 8, Wisconsin voters could decide which party controls the U.S. Senate and choose whether Republicans regain full control of state government or enter another four years of divided government.

Neither side can predict the outcome, but strategists from both parties are doubling down to win over voters who cross party lines before Election Day in one of the nation's primer battleground states.

"Voters in the middle who sometimes vote Democratic, sometimes vote Republican, understand what's at stake in this election and that Trumpism is a problem," said Joe Zepecki, a Democratic strategist.

Republican political strategist Brian Reisinger said this midterm will come down to turnout, with most voters already backing one party or the other.

"There's a need for both parties to turn out their base and win the swing vote, and that's what makes elections so challenging and makes them so interesting here in Wisconsin," Reisinger said.

There's no doubt the stakes are high, especially when Wisconsin has a history of close outcomes. In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by 0.7% over Hillary Clinton. Two years later, Democrat Tony Evers narrowly defeated then-Republican Gov. Scott Walker by fewer than 30,000 votes, gaining 49.6% of the vote to Walker's 48.5% in 2018.

And again in 2020, as Joe Biden won Wisconsin by less than 21,000 votes over Trump. The narrow result triggered calls by the Trump campaign for a recount in Dane and Milwaukee counties. The recounts in both counties resulted in a net gain of 87 votes for Biden.

This election cycle, battles over abortion rights, election restrictions, education, and rising crime are consuming key races for U.S. Senate and governor.

Democratic Gov. Evers is seeking a second term against his Republican opponent and business executive, Tim Michels. In the U.S. Senate contest, Sen. Ron Johnson is up against Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who is attempting to unseat the Republican incumbent.

What's at Stake?

If voters elect Michels, Republicans will have a clear pathway to enact a slate of conservative policies such as tax cuts, expanding the school choice program and reforming how elections are administered in Wisconsin.

"There's a real chance Wisconsin will go in a very new direction with a Michels victory," Reisinger said. "If Gov. Evers is reelected, we will continue to see many of the dynamics we've seen with a Democratic governor and a GOP-controlled Legislature on a number of issues."

If Evers is victorious, his veto pen will remain one of his most powerful mechanisms. Evers describes himself as a "goalie," with his ability to block several aspects of Republicans' agenda by using his veto.

He vetoed more bills than any Wisconsin governor, including a handful of GOP proposals seeking to overhaul elections, giving parents more control over what's taught in the classroom and attempts to give the Legislature more oversight when spending federal funds.

"We have to save Evers' veto pen," Zepecki said. "If you are concerned about what the Republican Legislature has done and has proposed going forward, you can't just vote at the top of the ticket in these statewide races. You have to vote for your local Democrats at the legislative level too."

Passing his own agenda of investing more in K-12 and higher education, gun reform and legalizing marijuana among others will remain an uphill battle, as many of Evers' priorities are often met with GOP opposition.

He's called numerous special sessions to address these issues, but his efforts have been ignored by Republican lawmakers. Many pieces of legislation authored by Democrats rarely receive a public hearing or are put on the floor for a vote.

On the campaign trail, Evers touts spending billions allocated to the state after Congress passed the American Rescue Plan Act. It gave him sole authority to direct millions towards small businesses, schools, farms, and expanding broadband across the state.

He’s also positioned himself as the candidate who will "defend democracy" amid GOP skepticism that the 2020 election was rigged, and vowed to block attempts to make voting more difficult in Wisconsin.

In contrast, Michels is running on his military background and often describes himself as a "businessman" that's ready to lead the state by touting his record of helping grow his family's business to become the state's largest construction company, Michels Corp, which now employs more than 8,000 workers.

Looking at the U.S. Senate race, Wisconsin is one of a handful of states that could shift control of the Senate for the next two years. Johnson has maintained a lead over Barnes in statewide polling since the primary. On Wednesday, Marquette Law School will release its final poll to reveal which candidates have an edge before Election Day.

The Issues:

Democrats have largely focused on abortion access in wake of Roe v. Wade being overturn earlier this year -- that put in place a state law from 1849 banning all abortions unless a mother's life is in danger.

While abortion is a central part of the Evers and Barnes campaign in attempt to sway women and independent voters, Reisinger believes Democrats are focusing too much on the issue when voters are more concerned about inflation and economic uncertainty.

"Abortion and the Dobbs decision was certainly an important part of this election, and it will drive out some of what happens on Election Day, but not all of it," Reisinger said. "It's competing with top issues, with the economy being number one and crime being number two."

Polls have shown inflation and the economy are top concerns among Wisconsin votes, yet Democrats have spent millions of dollars in campaign ads casting Republicans as a threat to abortion access.

Sen. Johnson has largely focused on the economy, accusing Democrats of driving up the cost of gas and blaming progressives, like his opponent Barnes, for dividing the country and "wanting to fundamentally change America."

Barnes casts Johnson as "out of touch" for supporting tax cuts that largely benefit the wealthy and policies allowing Johnson to avoid paying state taxes on a trust fund he started. He's also called Johnson a "threat to Democracy" for downplaying the seriousness of the Jan. 6 attack at the U.S. Capitol.

Crime has also consumed both the U.S. Senate and governor's race. Regardless of who wins, Reisinger and Zepecki agree finding solutions to combat crime will require both sides to work with each other.

"In a state where you're always going to have power swings between Democrats and Republicans, there's a real need to have solutions that cross partisan lines if you want to have, from a political standpoint, long-term success," said Reisinger.

Zepecki said the Johnson campaign is trying to "scare voters" when it comes to crime, and he doesn't think it will be a successful strategy to use against Barnes.

In the governor's race, Michels has casted Evers as a "weak leader" with a "radical agenda." He accused Evers of being "soft on crime" during a time the state and nation are both seeing a surge and blamed his parole commission for releasing violent criminals back into the community. Evers does not have any authority over who is released from prison, those decisions are made by the parole board.

Evers has countered the criticism by noting he fired his former parole chair and pointed to investments in crime prevention and community safety, with more than $20 million going directly to Milwaukee County for criminal justice initiatives.

Michels has not shared many details on how he would combat crime, but he's suggested using some of the state's more than $5 billion surplus to bolster police departments.

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