6 key counties to watch in Wisconsin Supreme Court election, and what trends to watch when results come in

 

MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- Tuesday's election to determine control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court has already smashed national records for spending in an American court race. 

When results begin to come in after polls close at 8 p.m., here are six of the key counties to watch:

• Brown
• Dane
• Milwaukee
• Ozaukee
• Washington
• Ozaukee

The returns from Wisconsin's four most recent statewide elections offer insight into some of the targets both candidates, conservative former justice Daniel Kelly and liberal Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz, are hoping to hit.

Polls close in 6 hours. So, I'm gonna focus on 6 key counties and look at some target numbers for both Kelly and Protasiewicz in:

-Brown
-Dane
-Milwaukee
-Ozaukee
-Washington
-Waukesha

— A.J. Bayatpour (@AJBayatpour) April 4, 2023

In Brown County, where Green Bay is the main population center, conservative candidates have tended to fare well. What's important here is not only whether Kelly wins, but what his margin of victory is should he carry the county.

In last November's midterm elections, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson won the county by 9.5 points over Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers also lost in Brown County, but his margin of defeat was 20 points against GOP challenger Tim Michels.

Kelly actually lost Brown County in his 2020 bid for re-election to the state Supreme Court. Liberal Justice Jill Karofsky won in Brown County by four points. 

Dane County could play an outsized role in Tuesday's election. In Karofsky's 2020 win, the state's biggest liberal bastion accounted for 12.67% of all votes. Milwaukee County provided 12.93% of all ballots. 

Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said those numbers illustrate how Dane County "punches above its weight," considering Dane County had about 540,000 residents according to the 2020 census, compared to 940,000 residents in Milwaukee County. 

"It's been the fastest-growing county in the state for well over a decade," Franklin said. "But it's also had high turnout and growing turnout levels, and more lopsided margins."

In November, Johnson captured nearly 23% of Dane County's vote on his way to re-election. In 2020, former President Donald Trump also approached 23%. Kelly in 2020 only got 18.5%, so while he'll lose Dane County again this spring, the question is whether he can be more competitive in Wisconsin's bluest county.

In Milwaukee County, can Protasiewicz win by more than 40 points? That was the margin of victory for Barnes last fall and for President Joe Biden in 2020. Evers won the state's biggest county by 43 points on the way to winning re-election by nearly four points statewide.

Ozaukee County has been progressively shifting to a lighter shade of red. While Kelly is still expected to win the suburban county north of Milwaukee, if the margin of victory is closer to 10 points than 20, that'd be good news for Protasiewicz.

In November, Johnson won the county by about 8,000 votes. Michels won the county by about 6,000. Frankin said the target for Protasiewicz was to get more than 37% in the county. In 2020, Karofsky won 44% of Ozaukee County's vote. Evers also reached 44% last fall.

Washington County is the most reliably red of the 'WOW' suburban counties. Johnson won the county by 41 points in November while Michels' margin was shy of 38 points. In Karofsky's 2020 victory, she kept the margin of defeat in Washington County to 36 points.

Then, there's Waukesha County; it remains reliably Republican, but again, the margins in recent elections illustrate why conservative candidates have to run up the score there. In November, Johnson carried the western suburban county by 25 points. Evers kept his margin of defeat to 20 points. 

"If Protasiewicz is getting about 34 or 35% in Waukesha, that's sort of a break-even point," Franklin said. "Above that, she's doing pretty well; below that, Kelly's doing well."

Ultimately, that's the theme to follow across Wisconsin as results come in. Just how red are Wisconsin's conservative, suburban enclaves? How big are Protasiewicz's margins in Dane and Milwaukee County?

"Run up the margin where you can, mitigate the losses where you're gonna lose," Franklin said.

Abortion a unique factor

The U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning federal abortion rights under Roe v. Wade factored into the November midterm elections and could play a significant role in Tuesday's results.

Franklin said the issue could also disrupt historic voting patterns.

"Democrats that approved of striking down Roe voted significantly less Democratic than those Democrats that were upset with the overturning of Roe," Franklin said. "But the same thing happened with independents and the same thing happened with Republicans."

One key segment of the population to watch will be suburban women. In Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, are they motivated by the issue of abortion access? Or are they more swayed by Kelly's push to portray Protasiewicz as soft on crime?