A vigorous low pressure system will bring wild weather to the Badger State by late this weekend. The track, strength, and impacts of this storm still remain uncertain. However, increasing confidence is building that there will be snow falling in southeastern Wisconsin, and some could be heavy.

The timing is showing the precipitation could start out as rain or a wintry mix by Sunday morning, and continue through Sunday night and early Monday. The major challenge in the forecast remains the track of the low, which will decide if this will be mainly rain, a mix, or majority snow. Another big factor in early winter systems will be Lake Michigan since the water is still warm. Number one, the water is not frozen so this can play a part in adding lake effect snowfall if the winds are right and the temperatures are cold enough. Secondly, the water plays a huge role in the thermal profile in the lower parts of the atmosphere. I have seen cold storms still spit out rain or a mix in November and early December. There are a lot of factors to consider.

We’ll have a better idea once the high resolution models come out. The bottom line is anticipate impactful weather for Sunday. This could create major traffic difficulties and headaches, especially if this system turns to all snow. One of our computer models is putting it right in the sweet spot, which could mean a chunk of the precipitation could fall as snow. Stay tuned!