Do changes in Minnesota's political map offer clues about whether Walz will help Dems in Wisconsin?
MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- The results of statewide elections in Minnesota are essentially the same as they were a decade ago. However, a sharp increase in polarization across the state -- rural areas becoming far more Republican while urban areas turn a darker shade of blue -- mirrors what's happened in Wisconsin.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, named this week as Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate on the Democratic ticket, did not buck the trend during in his 2022 reelection. Still, Democrats hope Walz's Midwestern roots and mannerisms will make just enough of a difference to help win the critical "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In 2012, former President Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in Minnesota, 52.6% to 44.9%. However, those votes were scattered far more evenly then compared to now. Romney won 22 counties by 15 percentage points or more. He didn't win a single county by 40 or more points.
Eight years later, in 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by a similar margin, defeating former President Donald Trump, 52.4% to 45.3%. The political map showed much more polarization, though. Mr. Trump won 66 counties by 15 points or more while President Biden won the Twin Cities counties of Hennepin and Ramsey by more than 40 points.
In 2022, Walz's victory matched the 2020 results. His margin over GOP challenger Scott Jensen was 52.3% to 44.6%. Walz lost 64 counties by 15 points or more and 12 counties by more than 40 points.
Much has been made of Walz winning six terms in a southern Minnesota congressional district that was held by Republicans both before and since. However, Walz's last three House elections reflect the broader shift toward dark-red rural counties. Walz won reelection by 15 points in 2012. His margin of victory was less than nine points in 2014, and he was narrowly reelected in 2016, winning by less than one point.
On top of that, Howard Lavine, a political science professor at the University of Minnesota, said vice presidential candidates tend to have very little impact on presidential outcomes. But one area where Wisconsin can be won is the suburbs. The key counties of Ozaukee and Waukesha still favor Republicans but by smaller margins.
In 2022, Walz slightly outperformed Mr. Biden in six of the seven suburban counties that border Hennepin and Ramsey counties.
"Vice presidents are really not the focal point of the ticket. They might have an effect on the very, very margins," Lavine said. "But, counter to that, we're talking about the very margins in three states that will probably determine the election."
Given the polarization on display in Minnesota and Wisconsin, there are not many undecided voters left four months before Election Day. UW-Eau Claire Political Science Chair Geoff Peterson said voters who can be persuaded late in a campaign can be moved by whether they feel a candidate is relatable.
He said that could well explain why the Harris campaign chose Walz, and the Trump campaign picked Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.
"These are voters who, in many cases, are not following policy very carefully," Peterson said. "They're certainly not into the intricacies of policy, and so, personality and character matter."
It's why Democrats have moved to paint Vance as "weird" over his past comments about childless women, and why Vance pushed back on the label while claiming he has "never met a guy who likes normal people more than Donald Trump" during a stop in Eau Claire Wednesday.