MU Poll: Toss-up in Wisconsin's U.S. Senate, governor race

 

MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- Wisconsin's U.S. Senate and governor race are tightening, with both contests leaning towards a toss-up, according to polling conducted by Marquette Law School.

Republican Senator Ron Johnson holds a 2-point lead over his Democratic challenger Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes among likely voters, while incumbent Governor Tony Evers and Republican Tim Michels are tied at 48%.

Johnson has held an advantage over Barnes since September polling, but his lead is tightening.

Johnson received 50% among likely voters to Barnes' 48%, which falls within the poll's margin of error.

In October, Johnson had a 6-point lead compared to Barnes. Polling conducted in September had Johnson up by 1% among likely voters. After the August primary, Barnes held a 7-point advantage over Johnson, which has essentially evaporated.

This new poll shows just how competitive the race is getting, which has generated millions of dollars from both sides that's led to massive spending on campaign advertisements.

Governor's Race

The latest poll shows Evers and Michels in a dead tie at 48% among likely voters. The results come as this race is the most expensive in the country, according to AdImpact.

The race has been tight for months with Evers holding on to a 1-point lead over Michels in October, falling within the margin of error. In September, Evers held a 47% advantage among likely voters compared to Michels' 44%.

The trajectory of the contest reveals a similar trend from the 2018 midterm when then-Republican Gov. Scott Walker was leading Evers in statewide polling before shifting in the final days before the election.

"It is eerily similar to 2018 with very modest Walker leads that evaporated to a pure tie in the last pre-election poll and that's exactly what we're seeing this time as well," said Charles Franklin, poll director at Marquette Law School.

The Michels campaign touted the positive trends throughout the fall.

“These numbers tell us what we have known all along – the race will be extremely close," said Patrick McNulty, Michels' campaign manager. "The momentum is on our side in the final stretch. We look forward to deeming Evers non-essential on Election Day.”

Among independents, Evers leads with 47% over Michels' 43%, according to the latest poll.

The poll was conducted Oct. 24 - Nov. 1 which included 802 registered voters with a margin of error +/- 4.6.

Absentee Ballot Return Rates

One week out from Election Day, data from the State Elections Commission shows Wisconsin's absentee ballot return rate is slight behind 2018 figures -- but there's a reason why.

Compared to 2018, voters are now offered a shorter window to vote early - about two weeks before an election - while four years ago absentee voting began as early as September.

Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

As of Nov. 1, 2022, 78% of the 645,102 absentee ballots have been returned, which includes those who voted early in-person and absentee.  

That's compared to 84.4% out of 399,860 absentee ballots returned in 2018 one-week out from the general election.

That's why the number of ballots returned have dipped slightly this year compared to 2018. However, there's more interest in voting early this year, a trend that exploded in 2020 during the pandemic with more than 2 million Wisconsinites casting absentee ballots.