By Kevin Liptak

(CNN) — A lot has changed since President Donald Trump addressed Congress a year ago. But in one area, at least, his State of the Union address Tuesday evening seems likely to resemble his last visit to the House chamber.

“It’s going to be a long speech,” he said, after delivering the longest joint session address in history last March. “We have so much to talk about.”

After a year of political upheaval and declining popularity, Trump certainly has plenty to discuss when he climbs the rostrum Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET. Traditionally a laundry list of both accomplishments and policy prescriptions, the State of the Union is typically a president’s largest television audience of the year.

For Trump, who appears in various settings on television multiple times a week, the challenge will be to break through beyond the boasts, grievances and vague promises that comprise his usual events. In the past, he has come to the address with at least a few surprises, either contained in his remarks or in the form of guests sitting up in the galleries.

Here are four things to watch for in Trump’s speech:

A midterm message

Trump will enter the House Chamber on Tuesday looking to defy historic expectations: as he frequently says, incumbent presidents’ parties often suffer in midterm elections.

And Republicans are hoping his speech acts as a messaging kickoff for a campaign season that could very well hinge on Trump’s own standing among American voters.

During a closed-door political strategy session last week among top Trump officials, pollsters and strategists made the (perhaps unsurprising) point that economic issues will dictate November’s election — and that focusing there is imperative. In a CNN poll taken before the speech, 57% of Americans named the economy and cost of living issues as the most important issue for Tuesday’s speech.

Trump, however, often has different plans. Even speeches ostensibly focused on the economy end up meandering in other directions, including his immigration crackdown and old gripes about people he dislikes.

When he does discuss the economy, it is often to boast about its relative strength — an approach some GOP advisers worry risks downplaying Americans’ economic worries.

Tuesday’s speech will be carefully scripted with references to cost-saving initiatives, including lowering prescription drug prices and cutting taxes. But many Americans still say the economy isn’t working for them — providing a test for Trump in acknowledging there’s still work to do.

Tariff setback

Four days before Trump’s State of the Union, the Supreme Court dealt a blow to one of the pillars of his agenda: the unilateral tariffs he’s used as leverage around the world, on both trade and his broader foreign policy.

Trump insists he has backup options. He’s already announced he would apply a 15% global tariff using a different — but untested — authority. Still, the decision was a blow, evoking significant outrage from Trump even days later, and almost certainly forced some changes to the remarks he was planning to deliver.

One major problem for Trump arising from the court’s ruling was the litany of policy items he’s claimed would be paid for by the tariffs. That includes a $12 billion bailout for farmers announced last year and $2,000 rebate checks for Americans, the timing of which was never announced.

How Trump addresses the apparent shortfalls of his past promises remains an open question.

Traditionally, at least a handful of Supreme Court justices attend the State of the Union, often seated near the front. After Friday’s decision, Trump railed against those who ruled against him, in particular the two conservatives he appointed, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett.

If they opt to attend, it could provoke another tirade from the president.

Questions on Iran

The massive military buildup around Iran, and Trump’s threats of war against the country, will make for a tense backdrop to Tuesday’s speech. While the president has hinted at pursuing regime change, and insisted Iran not obtain a nuclear weapon, he has yet to lay out to the American people what might justify a prolonged conflict.

It seems unlikely he would use the State of the Union to make such an argument. His advisers have planned a mostly domestic speech. And in CNN’s poll, only 2% of respondents said they wanted to hear from the president on foreign policy in his address — the lowest of any issue.

Still, the rumblings of war have led to questions about what authorities the president would rely upon to stage a new attack on Iranian leaders or facilities. He has not made any formal attempt to gain buy-in from Congress, which holds the constitutional authority to declare war.

Trump is perhaps more likely to recount last year’s mission to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities, something he frequently boasts about when he ticks through the accomplishments of his first year back in office.

Yet that may raise questions about pending action in Iran. While Trump claims the nuclear facilities were “totally obliterated,” he is now suggesting further strikes might be necessary to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Democrats respond

After a chaotic and disjointed response to last year’s address — which included the cane-waving Rep. Al Green being ejected from the chamber — Democrats are hoping this year to appear more united in their opposition to Trump’s message.

The official party response will come from Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, whose speech from Colonial Williamsburg seems likely to address the issue of protecting American Democracy as the country approaches its 250th birthday.

Spanberger, who swept into the governor’s mansion last year after a 15-point win, offered what many Democrats hope is a preview of a winning election season. She said she would address “rising costs, chaos in their communities, and a real fear of what each day might bring.”

But the assignment is among the most fraught in politics. Many in both parties who have been selected for the official response find themselves at best forgotten, and at worst ridiculed, in the aftermath.

Some Democrats in Congress are planning to skip Trump’s speech altogether, choosing to attend various counter-rallies instead.

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