How David Crowley went from 7% to winning the Democratic primary in two weeks

MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- It was only two weeks ago, but in some ways, it feels closer to two years ago. A hastily arranged Marquette Law School Poll came out, accounting for Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley getting back into the Democratic race for governor after dropping out early last month.

In the poll, released March 29, Crowley had the support of just 7% of sampled Democratic voters. He was far behind State Rep. Francesca Hong and even former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.

However, Barnes would drop his bid one day later, and undecided voters coalesced around Crowley as he scored a shocking comeback win in Tuesday's primary, toppling Hong by fewer than 4,000 votes.

The Marquette poll's director, Charles Franklin, said the poll was pretty much spot-on when it came to Hong, who captured 39.3% of the vote after the poll showed her with the support of 38%. However, Franklin acknowledged the gap between Crowley's showing the in the poll and his final performance.

"This is the big miss," Franklin said of Crowley's polling.

The July 29 poll showed 34% of voters were still undecided heading into the final two weeks of the race. Franklin said Gov. Tony Evers' endorsement of Crowley gave a substantial lift, as it signaled he was the best choice for voters uncomfortable with Hong's position as a self-described socialist. 

Beyond that, Franklin noted Hong faced her biggest hurdle with older voters, and they happened to make up the biggest share of the undecided electorate.

"Hong did least well with older voters, those over 45 and especially those over 60, but those voters were also the most undecided age group," Franklin said. "Pretty clearly, voters really did settle on one alternative to Hong."

Marquette Political Science Professor Jula Azari said Hong's campaign should ultimately be viewed as a success. She started with practically no statewide name recognition and was never embraced during the campaign by the party's power brokers.

"I think this is generally a story of a campaign that came out of basically nowhere and won 38% of the vote," Azari said. "And I think that's the most accurate way to think about what went down."

Azari added Hong's undoing may well have been on her home turf in Dane County. While Hong carried the state's second-most populous county by about 11,000 votes, most expected her to run up a bigger marging.

However, Crowley held his own, and State Sen. Kelda Roys, also from Madison, was able to capture nearly 11% of the vote there.

"I think one thing that happened is that Kelda Roys cut into Hong's vote totals in Madison," Azari said. "And that helped drive this very close result."

In Crowley's home of Milwaukee County, where he's served as county executive since 2020, he won by only about 2,400 votes. The close split in Milwaukee County should not come as much of a surprise.

An analysis put together by Marquette researcher John Johnson showed ward-level results across the county in Tuesday's primary closely mirrored Crowley's 2020 county executive race against left-wing state Senator Chris Larson.

Crowley's coalition was a blend of majority-Black wards on Milwaukee's north side, along with wealthy northern suburbs like River Hills and Fox Point, combined with more middle-class southwest suburbs like Greenfield, Greendale and Hales Corners.

"Crowley reliably draws support from a seemingly contradictory set of places," Johnson wrote. "In Milwaukee County, he wins the poorest wards and the richest, the most Black and the most white, the most Democratic and the most Republican."

Looking ahead to November, perhaps Crowley's biggest challenge will be winning over as many of Hong's 300,000-plus voters. Many of her supporters could feel spurned by Evers and other top Dems pushing back on Hong's electability.

"Will some of those Hong voters be disappointed and decide to sit out the governor's race," Franklin asked. "That's a big question."

Franklin noted polling began Wednesday for the MU poll's first survey on the general election matchup between Crowley and GOP Congressman Tom Tiffany.

Franklin added the poll originally listed Hong as the Democratic nominee, so the wording had to be changed before going into the field.