MU Poll: Harris extends lead over Trump, U.S. Senate race still tight

 

MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by four points in the latest Marquette Law School Poll conducted just days before the presidential debate.

Less than eight weeks until Election Day, Harris has a 52-48 advantage over Trump among registered and likely voters. It's a slight jump from Marquette's August poll when both candidates were locked in a statistical tie.

Poll Director Charles Franklin said Harris' slight advantage is likely due to a post Democratic National Convention bump and that "she's not Biden."

"I think people underappreciate how unpopular Biden was with job approval and his favorability," Franklin said.

When third party candidates are added, Harris leads 47% to Trump's 42% among registered voters. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who dropped out of the presidential race, received 6% of the vote, down from 8% in August.

The latest poll from Aug. 28 - Sept. 5 surveyed 822 registered voters, 738 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters was +/- 4.7 points, and +/- 4.6 points among registered voters.

U.S. Senate Race Still Tight

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin continues to outpoll her GOP opponent Eric Hovde, however the race is still tight.

Baldwin leads 52% to 48% backing Hovde with registered voters. Hovde bumped up one point from the August poll which had him at 47% compared to Baldwin's 52%.

Voter Enthusiasm

For the first time this year, Democrats are now more enthusiastic than Republicans in the presidential race. Fifty-three percent are "very enthusiastic" to vote for Harris, compared to 47% for Trump.

That is substantially higher than in June, when 40% were “very enthusiastic.”

Republicans held a substantial enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in June, when President Joe Biden was still at the top of the ticket.

The Issues, Partisan Breakdown

The three most important issues to voters remained the same from September to August polling, with the economy, abortion and immigration at the top of the list.

The poll also recorded big partisan differences among independent voters on those issues.

While Republicans rank immigration very high, independents rank it very low at 7%. That's a similar trend with Democrats, who view abortion as a leading issue- but independent voters don't feel the same way.

"In both of these cases, what's good for the party base doesn't look like its most critical issue to independents," Franklin said.