Panel discusses 2024 election outlook, third party candidate effect in Wisconsin
MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- There's still a lot of unknowns heading into the 2024 election, including who will go head-to-head with U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin and what impact third party candidates will have in Wisconsin -- all questions a panel of political experts talked about on the Marquette University campus.
During an "On the Issues" program looking at Wisconsin's 2024 election outlook, a group of panelists weighed in on whether Republicans can defeat Sen. Baldwin next year.
So far, no big-name Republicans have decided to challenge her after she won by nearly 11 points in 2018.
Stacey Klein, a Trempealeau County board supervisor, is the only candidate that has filed to run against Baldwin. Another long-shot bid was announced by a 40-year-old college student, Rejani Raveendran, who has yet to file paperwork.
Craig Gilbert, former Washington bureau chief for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, said Baldwin has a great track record despite only winning two statewide elections in 2012 and 2018.
"The secret to her success is that she's a very mobilizing candidate for Democrats and liberals, but she's overall performed really well in red rural areas," Gilbert said. "She talks about cross-over issues, Made in America, and some of those issues connect with rural voters."
Other Republicans considering entering the race include Madison businessman Eric Hovde, Franklin businessman Scott Mayer, and former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke.
Third Party Candidate Impact
The panel also discussed how deeply divided and frustrated some voters are about a possible rematch between a former president and a current one.
A vast majority of polls have shown a majority of voters dislike choosing between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
It comes as third party candidates are hoping they can fill that gap despite the historic odds against them. The only person to win the presidency without a party affiliation was George Washington.
Lesser-known candidates with no chance of winning still run every year and sometimes their support can still make a difference, even if they don't win.
For example, Green Party candidate Jill Stein. She ran in 2012 and 2016 and has recently filed to be on the ballot in 2024.
In three battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Hillary Clinton lost by less than a percentage point in 2016. Some believe it's a deficit she could have overcome if she received votes from Stein supporters.
If Clinton won all three states, she would have defeated Trump.
Whether there's an appetite again for Stein and other third party candidates in Wisconsin, Marquette Law School's Poll Director Charles Franklin said that remains to be seen.
"What is not at all clear at this point is whether voters will remain as discontented with two major parties next November as they are this November," Franklin said based on polling conducted last month. "If they are that discontented, will they decide to choose the lesser of two evils or will they decide they had enough and go for one of these third party candidates."
The first test will come on April 2. That's when Wisconsin will hold its presidential primary election.