Professional growers concerned warm temperatures could trigger early budding, endangering this year's crop

WISCONSIN (CBS 58) -- The unusually warm start to February could have a major impact on Wisconsin's crops this year.

Already, some viewers are reporting their plants and trees are starting to bud, thinking it's spring already. So, we went to the experts.

A prolonged stretch of warm days could trick fruit trees into starting to bud, but if a cold stretch comes in after, those buds could freeze and die.

And Wisconsin's fruit production is worth billions of dollars every year. So, this warm weather could have major consequences.

Jay Patterson, owner of Patterson Orchards in New Berlin, told us, "If we get a freeze in May, that could easily wipe out the crop then."

Professional growers at nurseries and orchards throughout the state are watching their crops -and the forecast- very closely.

They're not panicking yet, but there is concern over how recent warm temperatures will affect their buds.

Ben French is the VP of propagation and product development at Johnson's Nursery in Menomonee Falls. He showed us a bud that is "still super tight. You can feel how hard it is, even."

That's a good sign, for now.

Nurseries typically raise trees that are bred to withstand climate extremes, but every warm winter brings concern.

For now, the buds at Johnson's Nursery are still in the silvertip stage, which French said means, "They're completely sealed, we don't see any leaf tissue exposed."

But that could change.

He explained, "When you see a bud swelling, that means that the leaf tissue and the flower tissue inside of that bud is starting to expand and getting ready to open for spring."

"If we get another couple weeks like we had last week, where the nights were in the mid-40s, that can really keep buds growing," French told us.

The green tip stage comes when warm weather causes leaves to grow.

Last week, temperatures got into the 50s for several days.

And French said, "Once it starts, it keeps going. But it's definitely slowed down by cold temperatures."

Thousands of apple trees down the road in New Berlin are starting to stir.

Patterson said his buds, "Are kind of swelling a little bit, if you look at that one."

Patterson's orchard sells lots of apples; they also supply a lot of Milwaukee schools, even a grocery chain.

He said, "I'm constantly watching the weather."

Growers prefer temps in the 30s in February. Forties aren't great and 50s are a real problem.

Patterson said, "When they get to this stage, if we got warm enough weather, those things will probably pop out of their shell pretty fast."

So far, this week looks to be a little colder.

Jay knows this stretch is critical to keep his nearly 5,000 trees from budding too early. "We've had years where we've lost 80%, 90% of the crop, just with one night of 27, 26 degrees in May."

Temperatures are typically warmer in southern parts of the state and closer to the lake, so trees in those areas may be starting to bud.

Jay Patterson said huge commercial operations may have insurance to cover a crop lost to extreme temperatures.

But it's not cost-effective for his orchard, so if they lose this year's crop, they're out of luck.