Trump says he wants to resume nuclear testing. Here’s why experts are confused

US Energy Department/AP via CNN Newsource

By Tom Foreman

(CNN) — A ghost of the Cold War is rising between the world’s superpowers, just in time for Halloween.

In the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin bragging about his country testing both a nuclear-powered torpedo and a new cruise missile, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, has fired back. In a lengthy post on his Truth Social platform, Trump announced, “Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.”

Now, nuclear watchdogs worldwide are wondering what might come of Trump’s pronouncement — and what he even means since the US hasn’t conducted a nuclear weapons test in decades.

“First of all, every statement in that post is wrong,” said Matthew Bunn, a nuclear weapons expert at Harvard University. “It’s not true the United States has the world’s most nuclear weapons. It’s not true that other states are carrying out nuclear tests. (Trump) seems to think it’s the Department of Defense that carries out nuclear tests. It’s not. It’s the Department of Energy.”

Trump’s own nominee to head the US Strategic Command seemed unclear of the president’s intent as he faced the Senate Armed Service Committee in a confirmation hearing Thursday. “Neither China nor Russia has conducted a nuclear explosive test,” Navy Vice Adm. Richard Correll said, “so I’m not reading anything into it or reading anything out.”

The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation defines nuclear tests as “generally controlled explosions of nuclear devise, such as bombs or warheads,” and Russia’s missile and torpedo tests do not meet that strict definition.

What’s more, Jon Wolfsthal, who advised both Joe Biden and Barack Obama on nuclear matters, notes other nations are already conducting similar tests – along with the US. “Russia, the United States, China are all investing tens of billions of dollars on new nuclear delivery platforms – missiles, bombers, submarines,” Wolfsthal said. “We have returned to the arms race dynamics of the Cold War where each side believes nuclear weapons are important.”

Still, if Trump truly wants to resume nuclear weapons testing, analysts say the complications are deep and wide. For starters, almost every nuclear-capable country in the world has voluntarily agreed to avoid such tests for decades. Russia ran its last test in 1990, the US in 1992 and China in 1996. North Korea is the only nation to conduct nuclear blasts this century, and that has contributed to Pyongyang’s status as an international pariah.

Beyond the diplomatic risk of standing up a fresh set of tests in the US, there are technical challenges. Federal studies have shown staging such a test safely would likely require several years of preparation, and even then, it might yield little useful information. The US routinely tests nuclear weapons components so thoroughly that America is widely seen as holding a treasure trove of nuclear knowledge unmatched by any other country.

Critics say if Trump ushers in a new era of testing, that will only open the door for any other nation with nuclear dreams to start catching up.

“The country that would benefit the most would be China,” Bunn said.

“It makes no sense from a strategic point of view for the United States,” said former Democratic congressman John Tierney, who now heads the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

Nuclear weapons experts note that both Russia and China have stepped up their nuclear aspirations already. Some political analysts speculate that Trump is hoping to back them down with tough talk, a notion he seems to echo. “I’d like to see a denuclearization,” the president said. “We’re actually talking to Russia about that, and China would be added to that if we do something.”

Neither the Defense Department nor the White House has offered a more complete explanation of the plan as of yet.

But Tierney finds the president’s constantly shifting talk troublesome, to say the least. He fears in an already tense international environment, Trump is injecting more instability – which can prove explosive in its own way.

“One day he wants everyone to get rid of their nukes,” Tierney says. “The next day he wants to start testing? It’s dangerous.”

The-CNN-Wire
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