While polls show close Supreme Court race, betting markets heavily favor Crawford

MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- The most popular form of gambling in Wisconsin might well be the pull tabs that populate taverns in each corner of the state. While those are purely games of chance, experts say research and trend tracking are driving the bets being placed on Tuesday's election for control of the state Supreme Court.

Three popular prediction market sites, Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt, all show the Democratic-backed candidate, Susan Crawford, with about an 85% chance of winning the election, based on the wagers people are making. 

Each of the platforms allow players to buy shares for a candidate. That candidate's odds of winning determine the size of the payout, similar to investing in stocks or sports betting.

"The numbers, the prices are set by trader demand," Ethan Rosen, an assistant director of PredictIt, explained. 

In the case of this race, someone would have to wager 85 cents on Crawford to win $1. On the flip side of the coin, someone betting on Republican-backed Brad Schimel would need to wager only 15 cents to win $1.

Rosen, as well as Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said state-specific trends likely explain why the vast majority of the money is being placed on Crawford.

"If you just look at the past voting history, you would say the liberal candidate seems to have an advantage in these April elections here," Franklin said.

Politically, Wisconsin is often associated with razor-thin statewide elections. Five of the seven presidential elections since 2000 have been decided by less than one percentage point. However, three of the last four elections for the Wisconsin Supreme Court have seen the liberal candidate win in a landslide.

Most recently, Justice Jill Karofsky beat Dan Kelly 55.2% to 44.7% in 2020. Then, in 2023, Justice Janet Protasiewicz beat Kelly 55.4% to 44.4%. 

A poll released Monday by the Trafalgar Group, a Republican-leaning firm, showed Crawford ahead by a much narrower margin, 50.8% to 49.2%. The poll showed a race within the margin of error.

Franklin said he was skeptical the predictive markets were painting an accurate picture. He maintained it's impossible to say with certainty there's a heavy favorite because there hasn't been a race quite like this before in Wisconsin.

Past Supreme Court races have drawn national attention, but Franklin said this is different. He cited Schimel receiving the endorsement of President Donald Trump and Crawford being endorsed by former President Barack Obama. Mr. Trump's special advisor, billionaire Elon Musk, has spent more than $20 million propping up Schimel, including a $2 million giveaway Sunday night in Green Bay that preceded after the current court declined to hear a challenge from Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul.

"[It] brings a level of national issues and national feelings to the race that we've never seen in a Supreme Court race," Franklin said. "So how am I supposed to use history of past races to predict what happens this year?"

Thomas Miller, director of the data science program at Northwestern University, said between the three popular predictive markets, nearly $2 million worth of bets have been placed on Tuesday's Supreme Court race.

"This is sufficiently large," Miller said. "It is a liquid market, to have some belief in the results."

Miller is a proponent of prediction markets. He maintains they're a more accurate indicator of how an election will go than polls. Research over the past decade has offered a mixed bag as to whether markets or polls are more accurate.

Overall, more than $100 million has been spent either boosting one of the candidates or running attack ads, according to a tally by WisPolitics.

With a record level of spending, Rosen joined Franklin in cautioning the bettors' actions should not be taken as gospel.

"Fifteen percent is not 0%. 10% is not 0%," Rosen said. "These things happen, so never count anybody out when they're at 15%."

Rosen recalled a 2020 Georgia Senate race where incumbent David Perdue had become a nearly 90% favorite, but he failed to avoid a runoff in that election and eventually lost to Jon Ossoff.

Miller said while he believed in the power of the markets, he added they shouldn't influence anyone's decision to cast a ballot.

"Do not believe any predictions," he said. "Vote."