Democratic gains in statewide polling; what it tells us about the presidential race
MADISON, Wis. (CBS 58) -- Just under 90 days until the election, new statewide polling shows there's been some prominent shifts on where voters stand on the issues and candidates.
Every election cycle, candidates try to center their campaigns on issues important to voters, and for Republicans, that's been inflation and immigration. Meanwhile, Democrats have prioritized reproductive rights.
New polling by Marquette Law School suggests Democrats' message has been resonating with voters.
Earlier this year, immigration and border security were the second most important issue, but now it's moved to number three. Abortion policy saw a slight uptick and moved into the second spot.
It comes as some Democrats fear border security could overshadow reproductive rights, especially in states like Wisconsin, where a woman can get access to an abortion while a legal battle over the issue continues.
"This is not a welcome development for Republicans, because they want to tie Kamala Harris to the situation at the southern border," said Anthony Chergosky, an associate professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin La Crosse.
Chergosky believes the shift could be due to the party closing an enthusiasm gap since a reset in the presidential race, and believes Vice President Kamala Harris is a better messenger on the issue of abortion.
"Since the Republican National Convention concluded, the Democrats have basically been the center of attention," he said. "And that means Democrats have an opportunity to develop their message."
Views on JD Vance
About half a dozen polls in recent weeks also show vice president nominee JD Vance struggling since he became former President Donald Trump's running mate.
In Wisconsin, 31% view him as favorable compared to 41% unfavorable and 29% haven't heard enough, according to the recent Marquette poll.
A CNN survey also revealed Vance is the least-likely non-incumbent vice president nominee after the party's convention since 1980 with a net negative rating (-6). In comparison, Sarah Palin and Dan Quayle, two criticized running mate selections, both had double-digit positive approval ratings out of their respective national conventions.
Chergosky said that's most likely connected to his past comments about attacking Democratic leaders as "childless cat ladies" that's weakened his image. However, he added, that doesn't necessarily mean it will hurt their chances in November.
"I don't know how much this matters for the election," Chergosky said. "Ultimately people make decisions about the candidates at the top of the ticket."
Democrats are also closing an enthusiasm gap, with more saying they are very enthusiastic about voting this fall since President Joe Biden exited the race.
Republicans have coined the surge a "honeymoon phase," which they believe will begin to dwindle in the coming weeks. That's when they hope to capitalize on it with less than 90 days to go until the election.
Marquette's poll was conducted between July 24 and Aug. 1, surveying 877 registered voters. The margin of error was +/- 4.6 percentage points.