New study: Wisconsin population could drop by 200,000 people by 2050, policymakers look to reverse trend
MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- A new study is revealing concerning population trends that could play out over the next several decades.
According to Wisconsin's fertility rates, the state is projected to have 200,000 fewer people in the year 2050. That population drop could have wide-ranging impacts.
The state's Department of Administration crunched the numbers and found fertility rates are dropping across the state.
A Marquette research fellow said the state's declining population will be one of the most important policy issues of his lifetime, one that will impact education, housing, jobs, the economy, and more.
It comes about as the current population ages, increasing a demand for services for retired people.
Marquette's John Johnson told us, "It's such a big issue, there's no getting away from it. And it will affect so many parts of life."
The state of Wisconsin's birth rates are about to crest, according to the new study. And soon, it projects, they'll begin to fall, for at least the next two decades.
If the projections bear out, Wisconsin will have 200,000 fewer people in 2050.
Johnson said, "This will be one of the biggest public policy realities that legislators, school administrators, really, all of us, will be figuring out how to live with."
Johnson says the study tracks with his own research.
In just a few years, there could be 10% fewer 1st graders in Milwaukee than there are now. That trend could lead to school closures.
Johnson told us, "It will behoove local governments to work even harder on keeping the people we have, let alone attracting new residents."
The study shows the city of Milwaukee could have 72,000 fewer people in 2050, a drop of more than 12%.
John Johnson said the birth rate in Milwaukee is actually higher than in some of the rural parts of the state. But more people move away than move in, leading to the population loss.
But Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson is still confident the city can reverse the trend, telling us, "We are laying the foundation for growth here in the city."
Mayor Johnson's Growing MKE plan aims for a city with a population of one million by attracting new companies, creating enough family-supporting jobs, and making sure people can afford to live here.
The mayor said they are "working to make sure there are multiple opportunities for different housing available in the city that helps to drive costs down."
The study also shows Kenosha's population could drop 20% by 2050; Racine's could drop 22%.
John Johnson said that in Milwaukee, people tend to have babies and then move away.
But even the WOW counties surrounding Milwaukee are projected to lose population in the coming years.
He did say the easiest way to control the country's population is through immigration, adding, "Immigration is the clearest way to stabilize our population."
Though there is currently an anti-immigration political atmosphere, John Johnson said he could see more demand for increasing immigration coming from the business side of the economy in the decades to come.
A few areas are projected to grow. Dane County will increase in population by at least 11% every decade through 2050.
And other counties, like Trempealeau, Outagamie, and Brown, are also projected to grow.
But those are rare.
Still, Mayor Cavalier Johnson is hopeful policy decisions can keep people here, saying, "I feel good about where Milwaukee is headed over the course of the next 25 years."
The state's northern counties are projected to be affected the most, according to the study.
Wisconsin's largest generation is the Baby Boomers, many of which retired up north.
As they age, those northern counties could be significantly impacted.