Political insiders weigh in on future of Wisconsin Legislature and what races to watch
MADISON, Wis. (CBS 58) -- A new governor isn’t the only thing being voted on in the upcoming election. State Assembly and Senate members are also on the ballot. Democrats are looking to take control, while Republicans are hoping to maintain it.
Wisconsin is a swing state, but both Democratic and Republican insiders admit it’s a hard year for Republicans, mainly because of the economy. That means Democrats could pick up more seats at the Capitol than Republicans.
Two Republicans and two Democrats on a WisPolitics lunch panel all agreed Democrats at the Capitol are most likely to flip the Senate. Right now, Republicans have an 18-15 advantage.
“We see a lot of national headwinds against their party, and they're only getting worse. We saw the fed raised interest rates again yesterday and I don’t think that that’s going to make it any easier for Republicans,” Victoria Stewart, a progressive strategist, said.
What they all agree on is turnout will determine the future, and voters' perception of the president will play a role.
“People who are against him are going to turn out. The question, the big question is, are those people who like Donald Trump and vote for Donald Trump but who typically don’t vote in a gubernatorial election, are those people going to come out this November? That’s the challenge for Republicans,” Joe Handrick, a redistricting expert and former GOP lawmaker, said.
The four districts that these experts say are the most competitive in the state Senate are the 5th, 21st, 17th and 31st. You can get a closer look at those districts by clicking here.
The two local districts in the Milwaukee area, the 5th and 21st, don’t have incumbents running. Democrats believe national issues will drive people to the polls in those races.
“If you ask people about both parties, the image of both parties are under water. People think both parties are worthless. The image of the Democratic Party is just as bad as the image of the Republican Party,” Scott Jensen, the former GOP speaker, said.
Republicans believe they still have a shot at holding on due to the image of both parties.
“I’ve never seen an election where the problems that people are worried about was driven so directly by one party. Gas prices, the Iran war, tariffs, all the costs that people are facing,” Chuck Chvala, the former Dem Senate majority leader, said.
While those on the panel agreed Democrats will likely take control of the Senate, the Assembly is a different story. Republicans on the panel think Democrats will pick up one or two seats but not flip the power structure. Mainly because there are more incumbents in competitive seats running in the Assembly, which is giving Republicans confidence that they will hold onto power in that chamber. Right now, Republicans hold a 54-45 advantage.