Trump made biggest gains with poorest voters, Latinos, according to ward-level results

 

MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- Viewed strictly through a lens of who won and who lost, Tuesday's elections results paint a familiar picture of the Milwaukee metro area: The city and its inner suburbs leaned heavily Democratic while outer suburbs strongly favored Republicans.

However, new data breaking down the results to each ward show President-elect Donald Trump made substantial gains with a pair of groups that have traditionally been at the foundation of the Democratic coalition, Latinos and the working class.

Marquette University researcher John Johnson compiled a map showing how each ward's results compared to the 2020 presidential election. 

Across those conservative outer suburbs, Democrats were able to make some gains. However, Mr. Trump significantly outperformed his 2020 numbers in numerous wards on Milwaukee's south side and in parts of downtown.

Among the poorest 20% of wards across Wisconsin, Democrats went from winning by 19 percentage points in 2016 to a 12-point advantage this year. In wards with a Hispanic majority, Democrats won by 61 points in 2016, but Mr. Trump was able to cut his deficit in those wards to 42 points this year.

Mattaeo Avila is among the Wisconsin Latinos who cast a ballot for Mr. Trump. Avila, a 24-year-old Mexican-American said immigration was one of his top issues.

"You look at the last four years, you know, living here, we've seen a bunch of migrants coming in," he said. "And that, as well, is a big thing."

Avila, who works as a construction contractor, said he believed too many migrants were getting into the country without proper screening. A CBS 58 reporter asked what he'd tell people who are surprised a Mexican-American would oppose the migrants.

"Why am I against the migrants? It's because I'm not more or less against it," he said. "But I do think everything has a system that needs to be in place."

Avila spoke while filling up his work van at the Speedway on the corner of S. 9th St. and W. Lincoln Ave. In the ward that includes the Lincon Village neighborhood and Kosciuszko Park, Mr. Trump collected 155 votes this year. He received 96 votes in the ward one year earlier.

He lost the ward by 36 percentage points this year, but it was a significant improvement from his 62-point loss there to President Biden four years earlier.

Statewide, Harris actually received more votes than Biden with 1.66 million votes compared to Biden's 1.63 million. However, Mr. Trump went from receiving 1.61 million votes in 2020 to getting 1.69 million this year. It was the most votes any candidate had received in Wisconsin since former President Barack Obama got 1.67 million in 2008.

To build such a large coalition, Mr. Trump also made gains on college campuses. In addition to doing much better on UW campuses compared to 2020, Mr. Trump also significantly cut his deficits in the wards containing Marquette University.

Nathan Koch, a junior from La Crosse, said he voted for Mr. Trump because he liked the strength he believed the former president projected throughout the campaign.

"He's strong, especially on foreign policy, he's like a big leader, just got that egotistical energy," Koch said. "And I feel like in today's world with wars going on, I feel like young men can really gravitate around that."

Koch said he's also heard from friends who were upset with the process leading to Harris becoming the Democratic nominee when President Joe Biden dropped his bid for reelection in July.

In one Milwaukee ward that covered the MU campus, Mr. Trump went from receiving 245 votes in 2020 to collecting 625 votes this year. While Harris received 171 more votes in the ward than Mr. Biden did, it wasn't enough to offset Republican gains.

"From the people I talk to, my friends, they just felt like Trump was much stronger on the stances he had," Koch said.

Another critical issue for many voters on the left was the Israel-Hamas war that has led to widespread destruction and death in Gaza. At a convenience store near the corner of N. 14th St. and W. Center St., a manager declined to go on camera but said he voted for Mr. Trump after supporting President Biden in 2020.

The store manager, who said he was from Palestine, believed Mr. Trump was more likely than Harris to successfully negotiate a ceasefire.

One consistent theme between interviews conducted Friday was an affinity for Mr. Trump's perceived strength.

"I think that's why a lot of young men wanted to come out," Avila said. "Just to show up and say, 'Hey, we're done with just being oppressed by the government,' and we want someone that's gonna be a strong leader to take over."