Can a Trump-Vance ticket appeal to voters in the 'WOW' counties?
MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- Can former President Donald Trump and his newly tapped running mate Senator J.D. Vance's platform appeal to voters in crucial counties in the suburbs of Milwaukee that used to be Republican strongholds in statewide elections?
That's what we asked voters from Wisconsin's "WOW counties" -- Milwaukee's outlying suburban Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties Republicans have been winning less of in recent elections.
In 2020, Joe Biden won Ozaukee County marking the first time since the 1990s a Democratic presidential candidate won a "WOW" county in a prominently deep red area.
These trends have continued since then, but most Republicans who live in the suburbs are confident a Trump-Vance ticket can help turn that around.
Candee Arndt, a Wisconsin delegate from Brookfield, believes Vance's upbringing and journey from poverty to a rising GOP star will resonate with voters, especially women.
"I do because I think JD Vance grew up in a really rough family and drugs were a real part of his family and I just think women, moms can associate with that," Arndt said.
Kathy Broghammer, of Mequon who also serves as a delegate, believes Trump is "winning over" suburban women who may have turned their backs on him four years ago.
"I know that in the 2020 election, for example, there were people that maybe felt a little bit negative toward President Trump at that time," said Broghammer. "I don't see that right now. I think people are soaring toward him."
University of Dayton Assistant Professor Christopher Devine, who authored "Do Running Mates Matter?", said that dynamic is what makes Vance a risky selection for Mr. Trump.
Rather than provide balance on the ticket, Vance's political stance and tenor resonate most with Mr. Trump's biggest backers.
Devine said Vance's populist economic message is his biggest selling point during a cycle where the economy and immigration are polling as the most important issues to Wisconsin voters.
"I think they see J.D. Vance as a good spokesperson for those folks who feel like this economy is not working for them," Devine said. "To be able to say, 'I know what it's like to go through that, to struggle financially. I also know what it's like to live the American Dream and come through on the other side to potentially be Vice President of the United States.'"
Devine said Democrats will likely target Vance on his past comments about abortion and previous criticisms of Mr. Trump. Devine pointed to Ohio's 2023 referendum on protecting abortion as a constitutional right.
He noted 56% of Ohio voters approved the measure, and a segment of voters that stands out is in the Cleveland and Columbus suburbs. Several of those counties backed Vance in his 2022 U.S. Senate election while then approving abortion rights one year later. Devine added Vance's lack of experience allows Democrats to cast him as a more extreme proponent of the Trump agenda.
"I've described him, and I do this reluctantly, but I just think it's true, as the least qualified vice-presidential candidate in modern history," he said. "Even moreso than Sarah Palin, who prior to being governor, served in state and local politics for a decade."
Vance, who's closely aligned himself to Trump's policies on abortion and election denialism, has been labeled as a "rubber stamp" by Democrats.
Patty Reiman, a Wisconsin delegate from Whitefish Bay, said she was pleased with Vance's focus on his own personal story, and she said she was confident both Vance and the former president would moderate their message in a way that will appeal to key suburban voters.
Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) doubts that strategy will work in the battleground state.
"I think most people who may have some doubts about them will say if the choices are between these two men, Donald Trump is better than most and he certainly has a better message on the issues than Joe Biden," Vos said.
Vos, who's been a target of Trump for not doing enough to overturn his 2020 defeat, endorsed Trump after his preferred candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race.
An analysis by John Johnson, a research fellow in the Lubar Center for Public Policy at Marquette Law School, shows from 2016 to 2020 the suburbs closer to Milwaukee have turned bluer, while blue-collar towns farther away from Milwaukee are still reliably red.
But whether those voting trends change, remains to be seen.