The official three month forecast for winter 2023-2024 is in from NOAA! There is a strong signal that we are heading into an El Niño pattern which means warmer Pacific Ocean currents and can have a direct impact on our local weather. When it comes to temperatures the official forecast for meteorological winter of December, January and February give us a 40% chance for above average temperatures. While big time warmth might not be possible, overall warmer than average temperatures are possible. This is also reflective of the typical El Niño pattern in Wisconsin.
For precipitation the NOAA forecast gives us just barely below average chances for a drier than normal December, January, February. Winter in Wisconsin during El Niño can sometimes mean more precipitation but because it's a touch warmer it can also mean more rain than snow events.
Overall this is just a long range outlook and could easily change. But don't be surprised if you're shoveling more rain or breaking apart ice and wintry mix events rather than our usual snow.