Strategists at RNC emphasize Wisconsin's key role in the 2024 election

MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- As the Republican National Convention shines a spotlight on the conservatives in Wisconsin, political experts continue to remind us that Wisconsin is a top swing state.

On Tuesday, July 17,  WisPolitics and host Marquette University Law School met during Republican National Convention week for a luncheon. 

Katie Kingsbury of the New York Times moderated panel with Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin, Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauff and GOP Strategist Keith Gilkes.

All sides of the aisle agreed that stiff competition faces both parties this election year in both state elections and the presidential race. 

"We don't think either party can win a majority just on safe seats," Franklin said. "It's going to come down in that narrow band of seats decided by 5 points or less." 

Some of these panelists believed Democrats had momentum in previous years in places they historically wouldn’t have been able to compete. With new set of electoral maps, potentially more success could be on the way statewide.

“You are seeing Democratic candidates get tens of thousands more votes, but with a very small minority, and Republicans having that very large majority," Baldauff said. "We are also seeing progressives win 14 out of the last 17 statewide elections since 2017.”

In terms of how conservatives could win the state in November, Gilkes responded to this discussion point in the panel by stating the top of the ticket could swing ballots one way or another. He said he believes more people need to see these candidates on the ground to make a decision.

“It’s about getting back to our roots of finding good candidates, just like the Democratic side is going to do," Gilkes said. "People from the community have connections to their community and know how to go out there and win races."

CBS 58 spoke with UW-Madison's Mike Wagner, a journalism professor, about these same discussions happening at the convention. He agreed that it'll be a tight race, and pointed to previous presidential elections in Wisconsin as evidence that it could be very close again. 

“We’ve had extremely close races, Wagner said. "Bush and Gore in 2000, Kerry and Bush 2004, Clinton and Trump in 2016, Biden and Trump in 2020, these were all extremely close and this one is shaping up to be very similar."

Wagner believes the 2024 presidential election will come down to 20 to 40 thousand votes.