Democrats look to capitalize on Obama visit as GOP attack ads ramp up in final weeks

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MADISON, Wis. (CBS 58) --Debates in Wisconsin's Senate and governor race are over, and now the campaigns are heading into the final weeks, trying to energize their base ahead of Nov. 8.

So, what can voters expect in the final three weeks?

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Ron Johnson is looking to capitalize on this six-point lead over his Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes, according to statewide polling. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping a visit by former President Barack Obama on Oct. 29 to Milwaukee will help them across the finish line.

Since the August primary, support for Barnes among likely voters has dwindled in a series of polls conducted by Marquette University Law School, but the campaign said internal polling suggests a much closer race.

Some of those polls find Barnes up by one, others have him tied with Johnson or lagging by one point, all falling within the margin of error.

Despite the polling data, Barnes is remaining confident in his Senate bid.

"Polls go up and polls go down and we've been very focused on running a real local race," said Barnes during a campaign stop in Milwaukee.

Anthony Cherogsky, professor of political science at UW-La Crosse, said the next few weeks will be crucial for Barnes' campaign as national groups will be closely watching the polls to see whether his performance improves against Johnson.

"The national groups have a lot of insight into where these races stand, and they also pay attention to where their resources are used more efficiently," said Cherogsky.

Obama's visit comes as both Barnes and Democratic Governor Tony Evers face tough contests against their Republican opponents. Evers is locked in a tight race against challenger Tim Michels, essentially tied in statewide polling.

The former president's trip to the battleground state could be impactful for Democrats in motivating voters to the ballot box, but Cherogsky added the party has struggled in recent years to maintain high turnout in the Milwaukee area.

"Milwaukee turnout has been a tough puzzle for the Democratic party to solve," Cherogsky said. "They have struggled enormously when it comes to getting consistent voter turnout from their base. To the extent whether Barack will help that during his trip -- I think it will be useful. But I don't know how helpful it is beyond creating a lot of attention and buzz."

Obama's visit comes amid an unprecedented amount of negative campaign advertising. Wisconsin's Senate race is the fourth most expensive in the country, with projections showing the contest will reach over $150,000,000 in TV ads, according to tracking by AdImpact.

Cherogsky said Republicans have been extremely disciplined in this arena by driving home the message of crime, public safety and policing.

After exchanging personal jabs in the final Senate debate, Barnes is expected to stick with his message of portraying Johnson as being "out-of-touch" for Wisconsin and likely to show his strong support for abortion access. Over the last several weeks, Barnes has hosted a statewide tour focused on abortion in an effort to keep the issue top of mind of voters.

For Johnson, crime and inflation will likely continue to drive his campaign, while also tying Barnes to President Joe Biden, who's facing lagging approval ratings.

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